Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
-0.1
-18
38,963
Nifty
-0.1
-13
11,712
US stocks saw further upside over the course of the trading day on Friday after
Mid Cap
-0.1
-15
14,783
moving moderately higher early in the session. The downturn on the day extended
the pullback seen late in the previous session. The Dow increased by 0.8 percent to
Small Cap
-0.3
-45
14,548
26,505 and the Nasdaq surged by 1.6 percent to 8,164.
Bankex
0.9
306
33,445
U.K. stocks rose notably on Friday after a survey showed the U.K. services sector
activity jumped back into the expansion territory in April. The seasonally adjusted
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
IHS Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI Index rose to 50.4 from 48.9 in the previous
Dow Jones
0.8
197
26,505
month, suggesting the economy remained more or less stalled at the start of the
Nasdaq
1.6
127
8,164
second quarter. FTSE 100 rose by 0.7 percent to 7,404.
FTSE
0.7
53
7,404
On domestic front, Indian shares gave up early gains to end marginally lower on
Nikkei
0.5
108
22,307
Friday as a strengthening rupee as well as Cognizant's weaker 2019 revenue
Hang Seng
(0.9)
(256)
29,549
forecast pulled down IT stocks. The benchmark BSE Sensex dipped by 0.1 percent to
Shanghai Com
(2.5)
(78)
3,123
38,963.
News Analysis
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Dollar swap auction boosts forex reserves by $4.7 bn to $418.5 bn
Advances
1,019
709
Declines
1,497
1,098
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Unchanged
188
113
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Volumes (` Cr)
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
BSE
2,179
Refer Pg5 onwards
NSE
29,335
Top Picks
CMP
Target
Upside
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
FII
-912
20,412
70,703
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
682
867
27.1
*MFs
826
-4,970
-3,433
ICICI Bank
Financials
Buy
395
460
16.6
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
238
330
38.6
Bata India
Others
Accumulate
1,467
1,608
9.6
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
411
486
18.2
RPOWER
6
20.7
More Top Picks on Pg4
GUJALKALI
528
7.2
Key Upcoming Events
DHFL
141
5.5
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
BOMDYEING
127
5.3
ReadingExpectations
LAKSHVILAS
77
5.0
Mar 26, 2019
TU Central Bank Inflation Report
Mar 27, 2019
TH Exports YoY
0.06
--
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Mar 27, 2019
TH Exports
$22380m
--
Mar 30, 2019
TH Imports YoY
0.24
--
INTELLECT
218
-5.5
Mar 30, 2019
TH Imports
$21776m
--
DBL
480
-4.6
More Events on Pg7
GSPL
189
-4.1
LTTS
1692
-4.0
TCS
2133
-3.7
As on May 03, 2019
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
News Analysis
Dollar swap auction boosts forex reserves by $4.7 bn to
$418.5 bn
The country's foreign exchange reserves soared by $4.368 billion to $418.515
billion in the week to April
26, helped by the second dollar-rupee swap
auction, RBI data showed Friday.
In the swap auction conducted on April 23, the Reserve Bank had received bids
worth $18.65 billion against $5 billion on offer. It accepted just five bids worth $5
billion.
In the previous week, the forex reserves had declined by $739.2 million to
$414.147 billion.
In the reporting week, foreign currency assets, which are a major component of
the overall reserves, rose by $4.387 billion to $390.421 billion.
Expressed in US dollar terms, foreign currency assets include the effect of
appreciation/depreciation of non-US currencies like the euro, pound and yen held
in the reserves.
The forex kitty had touched a life-time high of $426.028 billion in the week to
April 13, 2018
Economic and Political News
NSE to review data sharing third party pacts since 2009
Corporate News
Gruh Finance seeks shareholders nod on June 4 for merger with Bandhan
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate
ICICI Bank Ltd - May 06, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
4QFY19E
4QFY18
y-o-y (%)
3QFY19
q-o-q (%)
PAT
2,292
1142
100.7
1,874
22.3
Bharti Airtel Ltd - May 06, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
4QFY19E
4QFY18
y-o-y (%)
3QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
20,615
19,634
5.0
20,519
0.5
EBIDTA
6,275
6,199
1.2
6,136
2.3
%
30.4
31.6
29.9
PAT
(966)
83
86
Marico Ltd - May 06, 2019
Particulars (` cr)
4QFY19E
4QFY18
y-o-y (%)
3QFY19
q-o-q (%)
Sales
1,669
1,480
12.8
1,861
(10.3)
EBIDTA
301
252
19.3
349
(13.8)
%
18.0
17.0
18.8
PAT
217
181
19.7
247
(12.3)
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well
for Cooling products business which is out pacing
Blue Star
6,718
698
867
24.3
the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability
to improve once operating environment turns
around.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,59,087
402
460
14.5
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,189
404
486
20.3
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues
and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,589
57
95
65.4
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,701
363
606
66.9
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,02,723
6,711
10,820
61.2
improve the company’s sales volume and margins,
respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,389
258
424
64.4
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM
improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,602
717
1,000
39.4
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
22,377
102
151
48.5
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,003
238
330
38.6
Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost
is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few
years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
6,45,508
2,369
2,500
5.5
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on back
of new launches and facelifts in some of the
M&M
80,379
647
1,050
62.4
model ) and strong growth in Tractors segment
coupled by its strong brand recall and
improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner (RAC)
outsourced manufacturing space in India with a
market share of
55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,576
819
984
20.1
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
18,524
1,441
1,608
11.6
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by rising
Shriram Transport Finance
24,506
1,080
1,764
63.3
bond yields on the back of stronger pricing
power and an enhancing ROE by 750bps over
FY18-20E, supported by decline in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at 27% CAGR
over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong steel
demand and capacity addition. On the bottom
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
17,668
182
327
80.1
line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to profit by
FY19 on back of strong operating margin
improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaudler Ltd
1,710
1,170
1,400
19.7
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
45,649
779
890
14.2
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy CAGR
of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers level ROA
RBL Bank
28,641
671
763
13.7
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by margin
expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the leading
brands in kitchen appliances in India after its
successful transformation from a single product
TTK Prestige
9,322
8,070
9,250
14.6
company to offering an entire gamut of home
and kitchen appliances. We are expecting a
CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25% in PAT over
FY2018-20.
Maintain Hold.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,395
63
120
90.9
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
26,214
89
156
74.7
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,448
259
360
38.9
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
1,954
1,310
2,178
66.3
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,808
2,280
2,500
9.6
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years. We can book out from the stock with 16%
profit at Rs. 2500 TP.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,941
158
256
61.7
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
25,444
127
210
65.0
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Well planned strategy to grow small business loans
and cross-selling would propel fees income. We
Yes Bank
40,677
176
290
65.1
expect YES to grow its advance much higher than
industry and improvement in asset quality to
support profitability.
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported
Estimated
April 18, 2019
JN
Housing Starts YoY
% Change
Sep
0.02
(0.01)
April 18, 2019
JN
Annualized Housing Starts
% Change
Sep
0.957m
0.950m
April 19, 2019
JN
Construction Orders YoY
% Change
Sep
0.01
--
April 20, 2019
12:00 AM
ES
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
April 20, 2019
12:00 AM
RO
ILO Unemployment Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
--
April 23, 2019
3:15 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate SA
% Change
Sep
0.03
--
April 24, 2019
4:30 AM
DE
Unemployment Rate Gross Rate
% Change
Sep
0.04
0.04
April 24, 2019
4:30 AM
FI
Trade Balance
% Change
Aug F
-400m
--
April 25, 2019
4:30 AM
TU
Economic Confidence
% Change
Oct
71.00
--
April 25, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Trade Balance
% Ratio
Sep
-2.42b
-1.90b
May 02, 2019
5:20 AM
TU
Central Bank Inflation Report
%
May 02, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports YoY
% Change
Sep
0.06
--
May 03, 2019
5:30 AM
TH
Exports
% Change
Sep
$22380m
--
May 04, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports YoY
%
Sep
0.24
--
May 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Imports
%
Sep
$21776m
--
May 08, 2019
5:31 AM
TH
Trade Balance
Thousands
Sep
$604m
--
May 10, 2019
6:00 AM
TH
BoP Current Account Balance
% Change
Sep
$753m
$1200m
May 11, 2019
0-Jan-00
AU
CPI YoY
% Change
3Q
0.02
0.02
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
8.5
8.4
9.1
9.0
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
7.0
7.0
8.1
8.0
7.6
7.7
7.0
6.5
8.0
6.8
7.0
7.0
6.0
7.0
6.3
6.6
4.8
6.1
4.6
4.5
4.6
5.0
5.6
3.8
6.0
4.0
2.6
5.0
3.0
1.7
4.0
2.0
1.0
0.3
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
5.2
5.07
54.0
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.4
4.6
4.3
4.2
52.0
3.7
3.7
4.0
3.4
50.0
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.1
2.0
48.0
2.0
1.0
46.0
-
44.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
95,415
-0.2
8.6
11.8
Russia
Micex
2,497
0.5
5.4
10.0
India
Nifty
11,624
7.7
7.0
14.9
China
Shanghai Composite
3,091
5.1
23.9
-2.2
South Africa
Top 40
51,925
3.8
9.7
3.7
Mexico
Mexbol
44,686
-11.2
-15.1
-11.3
Indonesia
LQ45
1,006
-3.2
4.1
-8.5
Malaysia
KLCI
1,708
1.4
1.7
-8.0
Thailand
SET 50
1,099
0.2
0.6
-8.9
USA
Dow Jones
25,929
0.1
11.2
7.6
UK
FTSE
7,279
2.4
8.2
-1.6
Japan
Nikkei
21,206
-1.8
-6.0
-1.2
Germany
DAX
11,526
-0.7
9.2
-4.7
France
CAC
5,351
2.1
13.1
-2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 15 April, 2019
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
30-11-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,206
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
May 06, 2019
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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